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| George Osborne would have good reason to feel bitter as he munched into his cereal this morning. Not only had his autumn statement - delivered, as some form of Downing Street joke, in the heart of winter - been overshadowed by storms. Now he was being drowned out by a global media event: the death of Nelson Mandela. Whatever his skills, and supports say they are not minimal, the chancellor could not withstand comparison with the most celebrated statesmen of the modern age. His victory speech was irrelevant by the end of the news cycle Things could have been so different, if it wasn't for the Chinese. The autumn statement was only taking place on Thursday because of David Cameron's trip to China, where he was begging forgiveness for his decision to meet the Dalai Lama. It was an unedifying spectacle. The prime minister had been frozen out by Beijing after the meeting and he was desperate to make amends. Unfortunately, the Chinese leadership was largely uninterested in what others thought of it. One Bloomberg journalist was barred from the press conference – more of a press talking-to, given they weren't allowed to ask questions – and Cameron's insistence that he had been discussing human rights behind closed doors seemed hard to believe given his apologetic and subservient manner. It was all a far cry from his crusading attitude while in Sri Lanka earlier in the month. It was a far cry, in fact, from the straight-backed figure the PM cuts in Westminster. Instead, there was something alarmingly craven about his bid for Chinese interest. The Chinese, as usual, came out of it looking humourless and dangerous. But at least they didn't care. The British came out of it looking obsequious and amoral. By the time Cameron returned to the Commons he looked ready to pass out with exhaustion. Osborne did his best to liven him up. The chancellor had the swagger of the validated. Growth had been revised upwards more significantly during at any other year since the millennium. The deficit was being slashed. The private sector was taking up the public sector's employment slack. The Tory benches roared their approval. Osborne could even set a 2018/19 date on wiping out the deficit altogether. There were some problems with this story however. Namely, that he previously set a 2015/16 date on it, so one might start to wonder whether his assessments were credible. The boom is based on household borrowing, itself reliant on credit and subject to potential collapse if interest rates rise. And there is the small matter of wages, which are still well below inflation. Unless that fact changes quickly, Osborne will struggle to convince voters to sign up to more austerity. That fact is especially relevant given that an economic upswing may counter-intuitively play into Labour's hands. Voters typically only opt for Labour once the economy is building at above two per cent a year. They trust the Tories to fix the economy, but Labour to put more money in their pocket. Osborne could be in the worst of all worlds – having done enough to reassure voters about the macro-economic picture but not enough to stop them opting for a more generous Labour election proposal. Polls released the day after the autumn statement suggested that was the case. As Osborne tried to make himself heard above the blanket coverage of Mandela's death, an Ipsos MORI survey found voters preferred Ed Ball's argument to the chancellor's, despite the Labour man's widely-mocked performance in the Commons. Osborne should be deeply concerned that a significant upward swing in the economy doesn't appear to help his numbers. People recognise that the economy is improving, but they don't believe it is improving for them. They may not believe that the Tories could ever make it so. Any Tory who found himself depressed by this would have done well to avoid a crucial poll, which went largely unseen over the week. It focused on two key Tory target seats in the north and found the Tory national share of the vote appeared to over-represent their support at a local level and that Ukip's tended to underestimate it. It would have been deeply concerning to Tory high command. Every ridge the Tories climb, they find another slope ahead of them. Osborne may have sounded confident in his delivery, but the facts on the ground remain to his disadvantage. Best of NewsBrutality: The student protest clampdown Police were accused of heavy-handed response to student protests today, after a wave of arrests and violent confrontations met a demonstration in London. Botched Isa Muazu deportation opens door to judicial review Theresa May's failure to follow official rules in the deportation of Isa Muazu has opened the door to a legal challenge, Politics.co.uk can reveal. London Assembly demands Boris Johnson intervenes in Isa Muazu row The London Assembly today voted unanimously for the mayor to intervene in the Isa Muazu case, in a move which significantly ratchets up the pressure on Theresa May Protestors target 'welfare to work' industry event Ministers attending a summit of welfare-to-work providers had to get past a line of protesters today, as campaigners targeted an industry event at the University of London. Best of Comment and AnalysisNelson Mandela: Political tributes The political tributes come flooding in for one of the great world statesmen of our age. Comment: Gagging extremism will only drive it underground By banning the expression of warped world-views, we undermine the very freedoms that set us apart from these anti-democratic ideologies in the first place. Autumn statement political analysis: True-blue Osborne dedicates this one to the fans Even when presented with the opportunity to tailor his own news agenda, George Osborne fails to reach very far beyond the core Tory vote. Autumn Statement Verdict: Osborne 3 Balls 1 It was Osborne's day and no-one was going to take it away from him. Comment: Bercow needs to stick to the day job before he sabotages our democracy John Bercow makes a fine Speaker, but his plans for Parliament 2.0 make me want to emigrate. Comment: Faith schools are enforcing segregation right under our noses Non-religious comprehensives admit 11% more pupils eligible for free school meals than expected, Jewish secondaries 61% fewer. How can this be right? Comment: Tom Daley was brave to come out - homophobia is still rampant in the world of sport Olympic diver Tom Daley showed bravery and character by coming out on YouTube. For many gay people in the world of sport, homophobia is a part of life. Comment: Analysis of the polls reveals a sophisticated public attitude to immigration The public overwhelmingly want a reduction in immigration - but look deeper and you find a surprisingly nuanced take on this most explosive of issues. Comment: Theresa May can't even get moral failure right Theresa May has committed an act of barbarism with so little competence that it did not even succeed. SO why have no MPs asked about Isa Muazu? By being so relaxed, Tom Daley showed what sexuality is for young people Tom Daley just did more for gay culture by lying back on a couch than thousands of hours of diligent campaign work could ever hope to achieve. The InterwebsThe Political Week Online: A Week in December What a week. It started off with a young swimming star coming out, and ended up with an old civil rights icon reaching the end of his life. Somewhere in the middle, an editor was forced to defend his patriotism to a select committee. And the chancellor delivered his autumn statement. | CIOT: Low income campaigners call for wider universal credit pilotLITRG is calling for the Government to introduce a revised pilot of the new universal credit system. Cogent: New Online Skillsstore for the Science IndustriesCogent and the National Skills Academy Process Industries, has today launched Skillsstore.com. NASUWT "disappointed" that Education Secretary "resorted to provocation"NASUWT comments on the ongoing dispute with the Secretary of State for Education. CPA: Construction survey indicates broader growth aheadThe Construction Trade Survey shows construction activity rose for the second consecutive quarter in Q3. 3M: Fantastic makeovers film showcased on Peter Andre's 60 Minute MakeoverOriginal covers for radiators by Couture Cases will be showcased on Peter Andre's 60 Minute Makeover. The world looks up to English education as an international benchmark - Cambridge AssessmentBritain is at the heart of overseas educational investment - and Cambridge Assessment is a key player. BSIA South East event challenges perception of ‘victimless’ business crimeBusiness crime should never be dismissed as low level, or victimless. CIOT: Have you paid too much tax on your redundancy payment?When an employer becomes insolvent, payments made by RPO to employees often wrongly have tax deducted. RSPCA: Gordon Ramsay should drop "barbaric" foie gras altogetherThe RSPCA is glad Gordon Ramsay dropped his supplier but sale of foie gras should be banned. |
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