Friday 31 March 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: A cold dose of reality for Team May

"Our duty is to minimise the uncertainty and disruption caused by the UK decision to withdraw from the EU for our citizens, businesses and Member States." - Donald Tusk
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If you put a frog in boiling water, it jumps out. If you put it in cold water and slowly turn up the heat, it will sit there and boil to death without noticing. Looking at the reality of Britain's EU predicament now, just a couple days into Article 50, everything feels a million miles away from where we were even a few weeks ago. It bears no comparison whatsoever with the  fevered optimism of the referendum campaign.

Back then, the Brexiters promised free unicorns to everyone and a pot of gold at the end of every rainbow. There'd be more money for the NHS, more control for the British people, everyone would know their neighbours again and a friendly bobby would stroll on every street. Today, the conversation is, at the very best, about minimising the negative repercussions of Brexit. It has gone from a solution to everything to a problem for everyone.

Once upon a time Boris Johnson implied Europe needed us more than we needed them. David Davis told us that we would go to individual member states to strike up trade agreements. Liam Fox told us he would finalise trade deals with non-EU countries while we were conducting Brexit negotiations.

All of that is false. Today's draft guidelines from Donald Tusk at the Council of the European Union showed that Europe is in complete control of the negotiation process. Britain is barred from holding bilateral talks with EU member states on Brexit during negotiations and it cannot negotiate trade deals with other countries at the same time either.

The balance of power is evident throughout. The British demand that talks deal on the divorce run in parallel with talks on the future trade relationship are dismissed. Instead, "the European Council will monitor progress closely and determine when sufficient progress has been achieved to allow negotiations to proceed to the next phase". The wording tells you everything about the dynamics of the negotiation. They are in control. They decide when they are ready to move to the next stage.

Davis' vision of a UK-German trade deal was always fantasy, but it's now clear even bilateral meetings on Brexit are ruled out. "So as not to undercut the position of the Union, there will be no separate negotiations between individual member states and the United Kingdom," the paper reads.

The attitude to the thorny budget issue, in which the EU is demanding around £50 billion for financial items and pensions, seems unchanged. "A single financial settlement should ensure that the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations undertaken before the date of withdrawal," it reads. This refers to promises in the current seven-year financial period, which lasts to the end of 2020. It therefore means we're on the hook for seven quarters after our March 2019 exit. Then it says: "The settlement should cover all legal and budgetary commitments as well as liabilities, including contingent liabilities." That seems to refer to pensions. No discernable movement on any of these issues.

May has been speaking for months about British firms ability to have "access to and operate within" the single market. We've heard it so much from her that it almost trips off the tongue. That gets very short shrift here.

"Preserving the integrity of the single market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach," the draft guideline says. Any future free trade agreement could not "amount to participation in the single market or parts thereof". It is remarkable to see months of prime ministerial rhetoric dismissed with a flick of the pen in Brussels.

May spoke of agreeing the final terms of the free trade deal during the Article 50 window, then getting it ratified across the EU, before initiating an "implementation period" for it coming into force. That gets short shrift too.

The EU only envisages "preliminary and preparatory discussions" towards a trade deal. This second phase of negotiation, which starts when it is satisfied with the Budget issue, would only create an "overall understanding on the framework of the future relationship". The deal would only be "finalised and concluded" once the UK is out the EU. Transitional arrangements must be "clearly defined, limited in time, and subject to effective enforcement mechanisms". And when a future trade deal is signed, "it must ensure a level playing field in terms of competition and state aid, and must encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, fiscal, social and environmental dumping". That suggests Britain will still not have control over its environmental standards, state aid rules and other issues, even outside the EU, despite having lost any voice in formulating them.

There are positives in the document. The EU commits to trying to avoid a chaotic no-deal scenario, although it says "it will prepare itself to be able to handle the situation also if the negotiations were to fail". It reiterates that it wants the UK as a close partner in future. It says it intends to "reduce uncertainty" and "minimise disruption". It commits to "flexible and imaginative solutions" to avoid a hard border in Ireland. And it wants a deal on EU citizens in the UK and British citizens in the EU as "a matter of priority".

But generally this is a cold splash of water in the face for the May team. It shows how quickly their rhetoric falls apart in the face of a stronger negotiating partner. All those optimistic promises from Brexit campaigners and government ministers disappear as soon as the European position emerges.

Britain is now the junior partner in a negotiation which will define its economic future. It is operating to a timetable set by the larger partner, according to rules imposed by them, with an end-result that they have decided without us and which contradicts the stated aims of the UK government. If people were asked whether they wanted this nine months ago their answer is unlikely to have been particularly encouraging. Put the frog in boiling water and it jumps out. But if you raise that temperature bit by bit, if you degrade expectations steadily, it hardly notices what is happening. 

This is the reality of what taking back control entails. Two more years to go.

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Friday 24 March 2017

Politics at Friday lunch

"We respect, embrace and celebrate each other and that's going to carry on" - Sadiq Khan
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There is always a surge in pride in the wake of a terror attack, a kind of emotional recalibration to neutralise the hatred you just witnessed. We've seen it since the events in Westminster on Wednesday, as we did after the 7/7 bombings. But it seems different now. Unlike in 2005, it feels almost strange to hear people praise London. Over the last few years, London has become the great enemy.

Islamic extremists, it goes without saying, hate it. London represents what they most fear, the idea that people from different cultures can live side-by-side. It represents the idea of mixture, which strikes fear into a puritan's heart. The list of nationalities injured in the attack bears the point out: three French children, two Romanians, four South Koreans, one German, one Pole, one Irish person, a Chinese citizen, one Italian, one American and two Greeks. He drove that car down one London street and those were the people walking along it.

But terrorists are not the capital's only enemies, they are simply its most murderous. It has many others, from the religious to the secular, from the left to the right.

In the wake of the attack, Daily Mail columnist Katie Hopkins made her own hatred clear. "An entire city of monkeys," she wrote. "The patriots of the rest of England versus the liberals in this city. The war is between London and the rest of the country."

These criticisms do not take place in isolation. They are part of a web of attacks on London and what it represents. For months now we have heard nothing but anger at this city. How easily now the words 'liberal metropolitan elite' are used, as if only the super-rich live here, quaffing champagne and truffles in a gold limo on their way to a banking job.

To anyone in the city, it is an absurd charge. Millions struggle to get by. The super rich are a vanishingly slim minority. The rest have to fight to make a London life work, usually by consigning themselves to cramped housing and a pitiless commute. That is the the price they are willing to pay to live in a city which feels like the centre of the world, a place where they have a shot at making it in their chosen field, where they will be surrounded with dynamic, interesting people.

But they are not allowed to express pride in their city. That would be elitist. To the left it shows cultural superiority and a lack of concern for the left-behinds, as if loving an area must always be at the expense of those around it. But it is possible to care about post-industrial areas, or fading seaside towns, or those struggling elsewhere in the country, while still loving the city in which you live. Love for one's community is not a zero-sum game. It does not take away an equivalent amount of love for somewhere else. This basic failure of reasoning is one of the reasons that the British left has always struggled to understand or harness patriotism.

To the right, London has become a euphemism for 'uncontrolled' immigration and to support immigration is to be a rich elitist. This is the way they try to shut you up now.

A dangerous new language has taken over, where the word 'white' nearly always precedes the phrase 'working class'. This has the effect of racialising class categories, as if no ethnic minority is ever poor or works in manual labour, and as if all the rich are liberal multiculturalists. It is a libel against the working class and a pathetically generous misrepresentation of the wealthy. It suggests that ethnic minorities do not face the same pressure as the working man - that they are somehow different.

If they are different, they are the Other. And that is a story which does not end well.

This narrative also erases the reality of thousands of working class people in London. Just look at the many campaigns that have sprung up on council estates all over the capital. These groups are made up of residents who live side by side with people from all over the world. They do not take to the streets to demonstrate against their foreign neighbour. They are out there calling for secure and affordable housing.

Over the last few weeks you could barely switch on the radio or TV without hearing fawning praise of David Goodhart's book on 'anywhere people', the tribe of supposed global liberals with no connection whatsoever with where they live. Goodhart is a smart and thoughtful man, but it is telling how heavily promoted his book is. This intellectual current has been flowing strongly in the higher echelons of debate for months, not least when Theresa May launched  her criticism of "citizens of the world".  The attack on London comes from grubby hard-right columnists and praised intellectuals, from the man on the street to the prime minister herself.

To be cosmopolitan is now considered a crime. To believe in diversity is considered hopelessly naive.

Since Brexit, the entire cultural proposition that London entails has come under sustained assault. It is the totem of immigration and the open society and it must therefore be toppled.

There are so many lies they are impossible to count, on housing and wages and diversity and investment. They are useful lies for the powers that be, because they frame failures of government policy as the fault of immigrants. But the big lie, the one which towers above all others, is the false dichotomy between Britain and multiculturalism, between London and the country it sits in.

London's character is a result of the British personality. It does not exist outside of it. Only a country of Britain's cultural and historic confidence could host a city as open as London.  Or at least, a country which used to have that confidence. Now we are fragile and easily offended, terrified of change and yearning for the good old days.

The truth is that there are no 'anywhere people'. The liberal metropolitans in London reflect Britishness. They are of their country, as London is of Britain. There is no 'white working class' versus 'wealthy cosmopolitan liberals'. These groups do not exist. There are wealthy people with a variety of views and working class people with a variety of views. There are immigrants who want less immigration and working class white people who want more. If those who bang on about 'living in the real world' did not live in their own echo chambers they would know that a single conversation about politics - inside or outside London - reveals more strange, unpredictable opinions than the mainstream public discourse can possible include or comprehend.

Over the last few days, the response to the Westminster attack has shown a great upswell in pride in the city. But look at how that was reflected: through instinctively British expressions of stiff-upper-lip sentiment, arched-eyebrow irony, gallows humour and up-yours mischievousness. The fake Tube billboard about tea sums it up, regardless of whether its author was a London Underground worker or someone online. The London spirit is fundamentally imbued with how Britain sees itself, because London is a British expression of multiculturalism. It is conditioned by the British concern for privacy, tolerance, stability and aversion to authority.

The wake of an attack is like a friend getting ill. It provides a moment in which to remember what it is that you love about them. Before the news agenda moves on, we should take this opportunity to recognise what there is to love about London and commit to protecting it in the perilous period to come.

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