Friday 26 May 2017

Politics at Friday Lunch: A triumph over hate

"Always after attacks like these some rush to help and some rush to hate. The helpers try to contain the blast, the haters help to spread it." - Tom Sutcliffe
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The first response to terror is the abyss. The horror of it is too severe, so the mind just opens up to this big dark place without any hope or meaning in it.

It sticks with you. It scratches away at you, sometimes days or weeks or years after the event. Usually there is something which stands out, some fragment of human despair - like the people jumping from the Twin Towers or those lying waiting for death in the Bataclan or the hostage obediently reading out a statement flanked by their murderers. That's part of the plan. To make you afraid. To make you hate. To put something dark and terrified in your belly and let it grow.

That's why the aftermath matters. It's why campaigning has to stop for a while. Sure, it shows that terror can affect our way of life. But then, what way of life worth having would not be affected by this kind of horror? What kind of society would be able to move on quickly after seeing its children killed in this way? You have to stop, take stock, deal with the grief of it, as a country. And anyway, the political differences between us always seems much smaller after an attack like this. Faced with the meaningless existential chasm of terror, even our worst opponents seem sane and tolerable.

Hate, fear and the breakdown of societal norms: These are the things which create terror, but also the intended result of it. Broken, vicious men - they are nearly always men - trying to create more people like them. And that requires a similar kind of hatred on the other side, a kind of hatred which can keep the cycle going, can meet death with death.

In the wake of the attack, LBC presenter Katie Hopkins tweeted out that "we need a final solution", a clear reference to the Holocaust. She also tweeted out a message to "Western men", informing them that "these are your wives", "your daughters" and to "rise up". It is equivalent to the type of propaganda Isis itself puts out. And they hardly invented it. Look back at old Second World War rhetoric and it's the same: A focus on the men, warning them about what'll happen to their wives and daughters, often with an emphasis on sexual violence.

Hopkins' message was clear. It always has been. It was when she wrote about using gunboats against migrants or called them "cockroaches". It was when she went to France recently to campaign for the National Front. But this time it seems she went too far. LBC sacked her this morning. A perpetual voice of hatred, which routinely encouraged violence, has been quietened. That is a good response to this week's events.

The more simplistic free speech advocates will undoubtedly be horrified, but they act against their own values. There is a reason we draw the line on incitement to violence. Where speech encourages attacks on others, it limits the freedoms of the victim. That might be their freedom from fear, or from physical assault. Or it might be their freedom of speech itself. After all, it is impossible for them to exercise it if they are being attacked.

It's like Clement Attlee said when arguing with Churchill about personal freedom: it is not absolute. It takes place within the limits defined by maximising other people's freedom.

There were other attempts to push people away from unity and peaceful symbolism towards hatred. Party leader Paul Nuttall said "it is not good enough to light candles" and then went on to blame immigration. Other commentators complained that "fury and rage have been squashed in a determination to stick to a narrative of keeping calm, carrying on and choosing love not hate" or mocked the view that the attack was not to do with Islam or immigration.

The good sense and natural disposition of the people is a constant outrage to those who would rather we swung into an outright culture war. But through it all, the messages of hatred fell on deaf ears. Instead, the people of Manchester behaved in a way that was simultaneously extraordinary and yet utterly unsurprising. They were resilient, sad and deeply proud.

None of it is to ignore the anger or the horror. It is simply to refuse to let it control you. It is to refuse to act in the way these murderous barbarians want you to.The crowds showed it in St Ann's Square, after the minute's silence to those killed in the attack, when they broke into an impromptu rendition of Oasis's 'Don't Look Back in Anger'. They understood better than the politicians and the commentators what the moral response to terror must be, the solidarity it requires, and how it is poisonous to this type of wickedness. After a horrific week, it allowed the country a kind of triumph. We are not who they want us to be.

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Friday 19 May 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: The immigration target which isn't meant to be reached

"It is a vision for Britain. A portrait of the kind of country I want this nation to be after Brexit" - Theresa May
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David Cameron went into two general elections promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands. It was a lie. He never had any policies to achieve the target. He didn't even try. He never had any intention of reaching it.

His former sidekick, George Osborne, all but admits as much now that he has been freed from the shackles of collective responsibility and instead writes editorials in the Evening Standard. You may remember that Osborne was not just the chancellor under Cameron but also the Tory's chief tactician. And yet he now brands the target he went into two general elections under as "politically rash and economically illiterate".

What's more, no-one else around the prime minister supports it either. "None of [the Cabinet's] senior members supports the pledge in private and all would be glad to see the back of something that has caused the Conservative Party such public grief."

The reason why is simple. It would be devastating to the UK if it ever hit the target. The Office of Budget Responsibility estimates that reducing net migration to 185,000 a year (it's currently at 273,000) would force the government to borrow another £6bn a year - almost three times the negative economic effect of higher inflation or falls in productivity growth. Reducing it all the way to the tens of thousands would cost somewhere in the tens of billions. Katerina Lisenkova of Strathclyde University, estimates that hitting the target would lower GDP per person by one per cent in the long term.

But even if this were not the case, the policy makes no sense on the basis that no government can guarantee it even if it wanted to. After all, using net migration as the target means you are relying on a certain number of Brits leaving the country. The fewer leaving, the greater the reduction of immigrants you require. All of this means that the policy basically encourages the government to make the UK an unpleasant place to live.

So it is economically damaging, impossible to guarantee and incentivises the government to make the country unpleasant. No wonder Theresa May chose to keep it alive in her manifesto this week.

As soon as the document was released, it started falling apart. A tragi-comic interview with defence secretary Michael Fallon on Newsnight last night saw him claim that it was not a policy but an "aim" or an "ambition". And of course the policy was completely without economic justification or elaboration. Fallon was unable to say how much it would cost the Treasury if he achieved it. This is Mickey Mouse economics, if Mickey Mouse was a sado-masochist.

It's quite clear from Fallon's answers that May's administration is doing the same thing as Cameron: publicising the aim without doing anything to achieve it. After all, the raise in financial charges on firms hiring foreign workers and plans to up the income benchmark for family visas won't achieve it. Although, to be fair, the economic catastrophe of a no-deal Brexit might. So perhaps there is a cunning plan behind all this.

However, there is one distinction between Cameron and May in this respect. Those who know her suggest she really does believe in this stuff. After all, this is the home secretary of the Go Home van. That therefore makes this a dangerous moment. As things stand, she doesn't appear to be foolish enough to try to hit the target. But if media pressure for her to do so grows, she might actually try to abide by her manifesto. And that would be far more damaging to this country that the breach of trust she has created by foolishly making this promise again.

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