Friday 28 April 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: Do you want the blue pill or the dead pill?

"Every single vote counts" - Theresa May
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If anything, the first full week of this general election campaign has actually been worse than expected.

Even though the polls are showing that the only question in this election is how high Theresa May's majority will go, the Conservatives are desperate to portray this as an actual contest between two potential prime ministers.

So much so, that the FT reports Tory spin doctors complaining to the BBC that they aren't giving Jeremy Corbyn enough coverage.

So toxic is the Labour leader's image with the British public that the Conservatives are desperate for voters to see and hear as much of him as possible. Theresa May is Tory leader, but Corbyn is their sales pitch.

May herself is roundly mocked by journalists for repeating the words "strong and stable government" on loop, but those same journalists ought to reflect on why it has got to this - the fact they will jump on the slightest departure from "the message" is why political leaders will not engage in such departures. 

But "strong and stable government" is a fantasy illusion of Britain's path for the last seven years - unless we set it in the context of a strong and stable housing crisis, a strong and stable NHS funding crisis, a strong and stable social care crisis, a strong and stable rise in the national debt, a strong and stable sense of alienation among swathes of the country, a strong and stable surge in Scottish nationalism, strong and stable confusion over the future of Northern Ireland, a strong and stable departure from our main trading relationship, a strong and stable fall in the pound, a strong and stable torrent of twaddle to explain it all away.

Speaking of twaddle, the latest gushing wave came yesterday, with May warning - or whining - that the remaining 27 EU members were "lining up to oppose" Britain in Brexit talks. Who'd have thought it - a membership organisation defending the interests of its members? But if there's one growth industry in Britain, it's a national sense of victimhood.

It takes a leader as abject as Corbyn to make the Conservatives this popular. One frustration for Corbynites is that their relatively popular policy announcements - most of which come from the Ed Miliband handbook rather than any far left doctrine - are failing to cut through with the public.

This is because the left misunderstands how voters see policies. It's not that they ignore them, but that they recognise them as an act of salesmanship. Politicians are selling a product to voters - and politicians themselves are the salesmen. Corbyn is a terrible salesman - who could believe the pitch of a man who says he is against renewing Trident while insisting his party's policy is to support it? 

May, by contrast, is pushing a Maggie Thatcher tribute act to an electorate dreaming of the real thing. Strong and stable government - a pitch that only works because seven years of Conservative government has left the public craving strength and stability. Vote Tory to clean up the Tories' mess. The fact that Brexit is now biting the economy, with economic growth halving since the last quarter of 2016, is neither here nor there. Hand over your money and May will give you a top of the range Tory majority that will make it all better.

And it shouldn't be a surprise. May is calm. She is composed. She is unflappable. She hasn't dreamt up her policies on the playing fields of Eton. The government's failure to get close to its immigration targets was blamed on David Cameron and the EU rather than May as Home Secretary. The right wing press simply ignored what disasters did occur on her watch. In a country sick of political slickness, she "does sincerity well". Just as she could sell ice to the Inuit, she can sell the Conservatives to a conservative country damaged by Conservatism.

May is driving her legions deep into Labour territory. The praetorian guard is outnumbered and unarmed. A choice between a 100 seat and 200 seat Tory majority is presented as a pick of two prime ministers. Do you want strong and stable Conservative government or a Labour-led coalition of chaos? Do you want the blue pill or the dead pill?

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If we want refugees to integrate, we need to stop demonising them


 

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There is no progressive majority to stop Brexit - or much else


 

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Working class Erdington shows there is no such thing as a safe Labour seat


 

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Flexible financing urged for infrastructure


New report says local and combined authorities and sub-national transport bodies should have access to more flexible financing options for infrastructure development
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Thursday 13 April 2017

Politics at Friday Lunch: When Brexit started to make us poorer

"Even at this late hour the Conservative Brexit government could steer the economy away from the rocks by announcing it wants Britain to remain in the single market." - Tim Farron
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A lot has been made of the so-called Project Fear campaign during the Brexit referendum. Politicians like David Cameron, George Osborne and Christine Lagarde weaponised forecasts of the economic shock which would come from a Leave vote in a way which ultimately discredited them and economists in general. The first part was fair and right, the second was not.

Consumer spending was surprisingly robust in the wake of the vote, albeit with a troubling reliance on private credit. The view set in that the Remain campaign and a shadowy cabal of economists had tried to trick the British people with apocalyptic warnings based on their political self-interest.

In reality, many of the predictions made by economists turned out to be right, even if the exaggeration applied to them by politicians was not. Take this National Institute Economic Review paper from May last year. It predicted that "heightened risk and uncertainty will cause sterling to depreciate by around 20% immediately following the referendum, which will result in an intense bout of inflationary pressure".

This is not far off what ultimately took place. The pound plummeted after the vote and then again when it transpired that the UK would seek a hard Brexit outside the single market and customs union. This means that we are paying more for imports and therefore prices are rising. Price rises are sometimes obvious - for instance when a new Apple gadget is released. And sometimes they are slipped under the radar, so they are harder for consumers to spot.

This week the Office of National Statistics labour market report found real pay growth was not keeping up with price inflation. Average nominal total annual pay growth in the three months to February was 2.3% (it's actually 2.2% if you exclude bonuses). Inflation in February was also 2.3%. So we're at the exact point where the two lines on the graph collide. People are about to start getting poorer.

After years of wage stagnation following the financial crash, Britain was finally emerging from the wreckage. Lower oil prices were helping to smother inflation. People were finally starting to see their buying power increase. Then the Brexit vote happened and sterling fell. Now the process has reversed. It's back to austerity, except that this time it is self-imposed. Our pay recovery stopped just as it was getting started.

It is only going to get worse. The Bank of England expects inflation to peak at 2.75% in the first half of next year, but many economists expect it to reach three per cent. The Resolution Foundation thinks real terms pay is now falling for about 40% of the workforce. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned of well over a decade of lost wage growth, flowing smoothly from the financial crisis through to Brexit. A worker will be making no more in 2021 than they did in 2008. It is a horror story.

This was the week in which people started to get poorer because of Brexit. It will not be presented this way, because the majority of Britain's political class - in parliament and on Fleet Street - support the project. So when the public complain of a reduction in living standards they will be told to blame someone else: European leaders, immigrants, or one of the press' other scapegoats. That's why it is crucial to note why this is happening and to pin the blame accurately.

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BHA statement on Noel Conway assisted dying permission decision


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Home buying activity up 7% in February


Home buyers borrowed £8.9bn, up 6% on January and 2% on February 2016
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