Friday 29 September 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: May is Corbyn's most important recruiting sergeant 

"I think in a sense we thought those arguments were done and dusted." - Theresa May
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One of the reasons senior Tories kept Theresa May in place after the general election was to prevent Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. They couldn't have made that outcome more likely if they'd tried. The prime minister is a recruiting sergeant for the Labour leader. She provides more reason for people to vote Labour than any policy he could possibly invent.

The Tory leader gave an interview this week which was startling in its stupidity. She was asked if the decision to call a snap election was a factor in her performance. "I think it was, because by definition in a snap election you've not been able to prepare people for it." This was quite remarkable. The prime minister seemed to be admitting that she had created the conditions for her party's failure. But it wasn't a mea culpa. It was spoken of as if it were the wind - a fundamentally unchangeable element beyond her control.

She then went on to complain about the lack of emphasis on "people coming together for debates during election campaigns", despite having refused to debate her opposite number herself. It's as if she runs around with a bag of punchlines and encourages everyone to make the jokes.

The interview sparked precisely the kind of headlines you'd expect, but it's worth going past the ridicule and thinking about the kind of mind which would have said these things. It is one which is entirely incapable of self-criticism, one which simply isn't alive to what is happening around it. You got that sense again this week when she made a speech defending the free market without demonstrating a sufficient understanding of where it was failing. She's tone deaf, she comes across badly, she's not intellectually engaged with her circumstances and at the end of it all, she doesn't even seem very nice. She is a gift to Labour.

The Labour conference this week had its share of disagreements, on Brexit and anti-semitism mostly, but it was one of the most euphoric gatherings of its kind for years. The party feels it is soaring and Corbyn has full control.

It would be churlish and absurd to pretend that none of that is about Corbyn. Clearly, the authenticity of his personality helps. Quite probably, the lack of professionalism which many political commentators criticised is interpreted by many voters as proof of his anti-establishment credentials.

It would also be superficial to ignore the political underpinning of this, the way that systemic market failure leading up to, and following on from, the financial crash have opened a door to a much more radical political offering on the left.

But Corbyn supporters should not discount May's dire performance from their election result. They have the supreme advantage of running against a politician who seemingly has no redeeming features, be they moral, strategic or presentational.

This might not always be the case. The Tories can change leader, and they are likely to do so once May's usefulness as a human shield over Brexit has been used up. Admittedly, none of her potential replacements - people like Philip Hammond, David Davis, Amber Rudd or Jacob Ress-Mogg - are very impressive. Even Boris Johnson's star seems to be on the wane. But replacing a leader can offer the appearance of revitalisation to a government, as John Major - not exactly the most inspiring of politicians - showed when he went on to win a general election.

Not so long ago, Corbyn was the butt of a thousand jokes in Westminster drinking dens. Now he is soaring above those who once made fun of him. But if he has a spare moment he should send the prime minister a thank-you letter. He has much to be grateful to her for.

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Friday 22 September 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: The Tories need to take their heads out of the sand

"The question facing us over the coming months is serious, but simple: will the United Kingdom leave in an orderly fashion with an agreement, or not?" - Michel Barnier
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If there's one thing the Conservatives have done consistently since 2010, it's ignore warnings.

Cast your mind back to the coalition government's disastrous NHS reforms. The 2012 Health and Social Care Act saw major changes to the way the health service is organised but the plans sparked fierce criticism from the start. Skip forward to 2015 and a scathing report by the Kings Fund think tank found that the changes had been "disastrous" and that it seemed likely that they had contributed to "widespread financial distress and failure to hit key targets for patient care".

A statement from the time by the chairman of the British Medical Association, Mark Porter,  painted a picture of a government intent on pushing through its plans regardless of the consequences.

"Rather than listening to the concerns of patients, the public and frontline staff who vigorously opposed the top-down reorganisation, politicians shamefully chose to stick their head in the sand and plough on regardless."

This act of sticking their heads in the sand was to become a bit of a habit for the Conservatives. Take a look at any major government reforms over the last seven years and almost all have been an unmitigated disaster.

Take Chris Grayling's probation reforms which included far greater privatisation of the service. Once again, experts (those who actually work in the area) voiced concerns about the pace and scale of the changes. Once again, the warnings were ignored. Lo and behold a few years on, and the impact is just as bad as many predicted.

Then there's Iain Duncan Smith's welfare reforms. From the bedroom tax, to the welfare cap, to fit-for-work tests, charities repeatedly warned that vulnerable people would be harmed by the changes. Nevertheless, the government ploughed on. In 2013, Duncan Smith claimed that his most ambitious reform - the introduction of Universal Credit - would be "essentially" complete by 2017. Today, that is far from being the case. The programme has been plagued by delays and the work and pensions select committee has launched an inquiry into the problems being reported by those who are already receiving it. 

And now we have Brexit. The biggest, most challenging issue to face the country for decades. The government has carried out analysis on the impact of leaving the EU on more than 50 sectors, but despite being pushed by the MEP Molly Scott Cato to publish the findings of these studies, it has refused to do so. It wouldn't be a stretch to presume that's because the documents will reveal just how much of a disaster a hard Brexit will be. We've reached a stage where the government doesn't just ignore warnings, it actively hides them from the public.

Theresa May will stand up in Florence today and try her best to convince the world that she is in control and has her cabinet's backing. But most of all, she will want to show that she knows what she's doing. None of the evidence so far suggests that she does. Instead, we have a prime minister who is isolated, out of her depth and like so many of her colleagues before, has buried her head in the sand and is ploughing on regardless of all the warning signs.

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