Friday 27 October 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: Corbyn is learning how to hurt the government

"This government doesn't know if it's coming or going" Jeremy Corbyn
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For months after Corbyn became leader, his performances at PMQs were uncomfortable to watch. His timing was all wrong, his voice would get louder mid-sentence for no apparent reason and then tail off just as he was saying something important. He was hard to follow and the point he was trying to make was often lost. This wasn't helped by many of his own MPs sitting in stony silence behind him. The only encouragement he received was from members on the opposite side who would cheer every time he stood up, celebrating being handed such a gift of an opposition leader.

The election changed all that. He returned to the Commons with a new energy and confidence. He had more support from his party and the Tories suddenly saw him as a real threat. In recent weeks he has proved that he is learning how to really hurt the government. One of the big criticisms of Corbyn was that he was not providing a real opposition - to anything. He was ineffective and the government was given a green light to do what they wanted. That's no longer the case.

At this week's PMQs, the Labour leader continued to heap pressure on May over Universal Credit. An earlier clash at the dispatch box between the two led to the government making its benefit helplines free. This time, the prime minister struggled to defend why claimants are waiting at least six weeks for their first payment and falling into rent arrears because of the delay. Instead, she used Labour's introduction of tax credits as an attack. The points she made were valid but as a tool to shift attention away from Universal Credit they were useless. The problems with tax credits happened well over a decade ago. People aren't interested in hearing about issues that have long past, they want answers to the problems they face today. May had none. 

This came off the back of an emergency debate forced by Labour on the rollout of the new benefit which the Conservatives refused to vote on last week. The Tories insist that they are taking their time and implementing the policy gradually.

This is true. Only eight per cent of claimants currently receive Universal Credit. But already foodbanks are putting out urgent calls for supplies and landlords are warning about tenants falling behind on their rent. What happens when 20% or 40% of people are receiving it? If these problems aren't sorted before then, it will be chaos. Corbyn knows that and May knows it too. The government will have to eventually give in and reduce the initial wait period. It's just a case of when.

While we wait for that inevitable U-turn, the government made another one this week - this time on the housing benefit cap. Ahead of an opposition day debate on the issue, Theresa May confirmed that plans to cap housing benefit payments for both supported housing and social housing tenants would be dropped. Critics of the policy await full details of the change but this was another clear win for Labour. 

Corbyn and his team are learning how to spot the government's vulnerabilities and exploit them. There will be plenty more opportunities for this in the coming months. Even without May's ongoing headache caused by Brexit, there are a long list of problems that could quickly turn into a crisis for the government. Last week, several NHS trust bosses spoke out about hospital waiting times with one warning of a "return to 1999". As we head into the winter months, it is not unreasonable to presume we will once again see record numbers of patients waiting on trolleys in corridors.

Then there's the prison service. There have been numerous riots this year and violence levels are at a record high. The government has long been warned that staff shortages and rising prisoner numbers are stretching the service to breaking point. Little has been done to tackle it.

While the government's internal Brexit squabbles dominate the headlines, domestic issues continue to bubble away beneath the service. Corbyn will never be a great orator and his party will continue to have its own splits over Europe, but he is quickly learning how to be an effective opposition. He's thinking on his feet in the Commons and applying pressure on the government where it is most vulnerable. If things continue this way, it will be a long and difficult winter for the prime minister.

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Friday 20 October 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: An economy sacrificed at the altar of Brexit 

"The sole reason that inflation has gone up as much as it has is the depreciation of sterling" - Mark Carney
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There was always a bit of a myth about the Tories and the economy. The party has been exceptional at portraying itself as a safe pair of hands - people who, fine, might not be particularly open-hearted, but could at least be trusted to keep the books in order.

It's never strictly been true. In 1925 then-Tory chancellor Winston Churchill was ignoring John Maynard Keynes and fixing sterling to the price of gold at its pre-war level, with exactly the type of catastrophic result he'd been warned would take place. By the end of the century, John Major's Conservative government was humiliatingly withdrawing sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. There are at least as many ruinous Conservative economic policies as there have been tolerable ones.

But despite these moments of error the party never seemed as if it had actually stopped caring about the economy. It certainly never reached the state of mania required to view economic data as propaganda from a shadowy undefined alternate power source. But that is precisely the mental state currently adopted by the Conservative party.

This week, inflation climbed to three per cent on the Consumer Prices Index - it's highest level in five years. With wages unable to keep up, this forces Brits to rely on credit cards for their shopping. This is itself a dangerous phenomenon, but it isn't enough to maintain demand. Retail sales are slumping.

An OECD report published on Tuesday laid out Britain's economic situation in stark terms. They found UK economic growth had slowed compared to Europe and the rest of the developed world. The share prices of UK-focused companies were underperforming. Sterling's decline seemed unlikely to produce a significant growth in exports. Pre-existing regional disparities in the UK were going to be exacerbated in the years to come.

Yesterday, Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of @GoldmanSachs tweeted:

"Just left Frankfurt. Great meetings, great weather, really enjoyed it. Good, because I'll be spending a lot more time there. #Brexit"

It's hard to match up the seriousness of what is happening here with the form it is communicated, but that is now par for modern politics, given who sits in the White House. Blankfein was just saying out loud what most finance bosses say in private. They're moving operations overseas to maintain their access to the European market. Frankfurt is the clear winner. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc, Standard Chartered Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc are setting up EU headquarters there.

At the heart of all these events is one thing: Brexit. It pounded sterling, drove a rise in prices which hasn't been matched by wages, created perpetual uncertainty and discouraged investment. It sliced away the advantages of a UK location to Britain's prize jewels, its financial services.

But this cannot be said, because to question Brexit is to question the 'will of the people' - or rather, given polls now show a public starting to turn away from the idea, to question the will of the eurosceptic press.

So instead those who make the assessments have their motivations and integrity questioned. Just as last week saw Philip Hammond slandered for failing to behave like a priest instead of a chancellor, this week the OECD were written off as a bunch of EU stooges, taking bungs in exchange for negative reports on Brexit. And instead of thinking again about the course we are on, the public is treated to an even more extremist doctrine of no-deal, where the complete severance of our trading and regulatory arrangements is presented as a desirable outcome.

This isn't normal. This is a millennialist fantasy. It has as much to do with standard British politics as Middle Earth has to do with an Ordnance Survey map.

The Conservative party's record of economic competence was always exaggerated. But they never before gave up all interest in economics. A cult has inhabited the party of government and seems to be driving it insane.

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