Friday, 10 November 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: May traps Britain and calls it freedom

"Let no-one doubt our determination or question our resolve, Brexit is happening." - Theresa May
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It's worth noting May's instinctive reaction to trouble: she retreats quickly to her Brexit support base. Today is a case in point. She lost two ministers within a week - it's now seemingly a Wednesday evening tradition for a Cabinet secretary to step down. So on Friday she came out with her big new idea to keep the government together: writing the Brexit date into law.

An amendment is going to added to the withdrawal bill explicitly stating that the terms come into force "before, after or at 11.00 p.m. on 29 March 2019". This is, of course, profoundly stupid. According to European law, we leave two years after the Article 50 notification. No-one but the government can stop that and the government is not going to stop that, so putting it in a bill makes no difference. If there was another government which did want to stop it, it would anyway need to repeal the withdrawal bill in order to do that, so putting this line in there is irrelevant.

But if only we were still in the days when governments did things which were merely stupid. This is much worse than that. It is self-harming. All this measure does is restrict our own negotiating team's room to manoeuvre. The Europeans must be watching us in disbelief. It is like a gunman walking out for a duel, only to watch his opponent shoot his own limbs off one by one.

The ability to petition for an extension of Article 50 is in the interest of the smaller party. The larger party - the EU - will retain its legal and trading arrangements the day after Brexit in the same form they were in the day before. But we do not. Therefore it is perfectly likely that we will need some kind of extension. Maybe trading talks are still ongoing. Maybe the voting in the European parliament to authorise the agreement is taking longer than usual.

Or maybe it'll be something smaller and shorter. We currently have no customs checkpoints with France for agricultural goods. Until they are built, they cannot be sent to the continent, where most of our food exports go. It is easy to imagine a scenario in which the French had not finished constructing those checkpoints and needed more time. We would want to grant that time to protect British farmers. And now we have made it harder for us to do so.

There are countless tiny little bits of our regulatory infrastructure that need to be taken care of ahead of Brexit day or they balloon into massive problems. Our passenger data sharing arrangement with the US comes under EU rules, for instance. If that's not transferred over, no flights can take off from the UK to America. There are countless thousands of problems like this, little legal bits and pieces with big ramifications which can slip under the radar and might only be noticed at the last minute.

We might need to extend Article 50 for a long time to continue trade talks. This is very likely. Or we might just need to extend it for two or three days, or a couple of weeks, to give us some maneuverability as we try to get a massive load of regulatory and trading systems into place for the deadline. What May and David Davis have just done makes that much harder.

This is lunacy. There is no conceivable argument for it being in the national interest. It is the kind of demand we would expect from our negotiating partner to put us on the spot, not one we would inflict on ourselves. We've turned into a nation of sado-masochists.

This is a ghastly spectacle of political hysteria and self-interest. The Brexiters in the Conservative parliamentary party don't seem to be responding to reason at all anymore. Their only interest is in the perpetual proof of faith-like commitment to an impossible national dream. And they have taken the leadership hostage.

Look how they hold a gun to its head. Once Priti Patel stepped down, Iain Duncan Smith spent the day touring TV studios telling May she had to appoint another hard Brexiter to replace her. Not someone who understood or cared about international development, of course. It was completely irrelevant that the new international development secretary had this quality. They just had to really, really believe in Brexit.

May, as ever, submitted to the Brexiter demands and installed Penny Mordaunt. She is thought of particularly highly by the Brexiters because during the campaign she was prepared to lie - or, if you are being generous, commit to a systematic act of aggressive sophistry - by claiming that Turkey was about to join the EU and that Britain had no veto to stop it.

This did not ruin her career. Quite the opposite. The fact she was prepared to bend objective reality to the goal of Brexit helped propel her to where she is now. It is a kind of initiation ritual for ministerial office in Brexit Britain.

It is this line of thought that gets us to where we are now. A Cabinet selected on the basis of its religious adherence rather than its competence and a prime minister actively sabotaging the national interest to prove her worth to a cabal of lunatics in the parliamentary party.

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Friday, 3 November 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: A government defined by survival

"I was absolutely flabbergasted when the prime minister brought me in and asked me to be the secretary of state for defence" - Gavin Williamson
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The government was defined, as soon as it was created, by survival. Theresa May's deal with the DUP, announced in her first statement after the snap general election, contained the DNA of the entire endeavour: She would do whatever it took to keep the train chugging along. And there was a very good chance that it would be completely inflexible and unimaginative.

This week's resignation of Michael Fallon was a major chapter in that same story. Ostensibly, the defence secretary stood down because he touched a woman's knee 15 years ago, but no-one believes that. Clearly there are other stories bubbling under the surface. Fallon was the attack dog with a black-tie collar. He'd be the one sent out to say Ed Miliband stabbed his brother in the back, or to associate Sadiq Khan with extremism, while sounding posh and reserved enough to make it appear respectable. Now it turns out he's probably not such a lovely guy. You'd never have known.

Stories float around Westminster concerning other figures in government and plenty on the backbenchers - some very minor, some serious. It's possible this will turn into an equivalent of the expenses scandal, a widespread long-running story which claims several scalps. If so May seems strategically ill-suited to dealing with it, as her promotion of Gavin Williamson to the defence role from the whips' office proved.

This was an opportunity to do a reshuffle, refresh the front bench team and try to get out ahead of the story. She could credibly present herself as the prime minister to drain the sexual harassment swamp. She's a woman, she has a good record of kicking the hell out of complacent male-dominated institutions. You can see the dots from which a picture could be drawn. Instead she was timid, uninspired and did the absolute minimum necessary to, once again, keep the train chugging along.

But the decision didn't work on its own terms. The Williamson selection proved crazily unpopular in the parliamentary Conservative party and lost her precious remaining strands of support. Not only that, but it promoted someone working in an office which is itself under scrutiny for possibly sitting on allegations in order to enforce discipline.

Williamson's great initiative in the whips' office was to have the government utterly capitulate in opposition day motions rather than risk losing them. This might make some sort of basic day-to-day sense. By not taking part you haven't lost each instance. You work to make the whole idea of opposition day motions as meaningless as possible. But there is a greater loss, a loss of authority or respectability, a loss of courage. And, of course, there is the loss to British democracy, even if that is not something which preoccupies the whip's office.

The tactic was on show again this Wednesday when the whips realised they couldn't win the vote to prevent the release of the Brexit impact papers. They buckled entirely and refused to fight. Then they fought a series of rearguard defences. They suggested it was non-binding. Then they suggested they could delay publication. Then they suggested they could redact it. And then finally, as tragedy turned to farce, they were reduced to claiming they weren't impact papers at all. At each stage, they gave in as little as possible in a desperate bid to keep the train chugging along.

In each aspect of government activity you see the same attribute: the requirement of survival above all else. This is, after all, the attribute the Conservative party is most famous for.

And yet overshadowing it all is Brexit: a policy which will tear the Conservative party apart. It is a bitter irony that the only aim of a government defined by survival is to enact something which makes it impossible.

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