Friday, 16 June 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: Grenfell could break the back of the Tories

"She met in private with the emergency services, a good thing to do no doubt, but she should have been there with the residents" - Michael Portillo
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The party politics of Grenfell may not always be as clear-cut as they currently appear. When journalists start really researching the decisions taken on tower blocks, they will likely find that many Labour councils - especially in rapidly-gentrifying London boroughs - made questionable calls too. But just days after the tragedy, it is already clear that this could potentially break the back of a weakened, chastened, minority-government Tory party.

To some commentators, the mishandling of Theresa May's visit might seem superficial. Some will say that the real meat of the issue is about the policy causes and implications of the fire. Her refusal to talk to residents - the fact she appeared so cold and indifferent and plainly unlikeable - should be secondary. But we're kidding ourselves if we think politics is conducted in that way. Her basic inability to show any normal degree of human empathy is a public relations disaster for the Conservatives.

It would remain just that - a PR issue - if her presentational failings weren't replicated so uncannily in her politics. I first started covering May in a sustained way in 2013, over the Isa Muazu case. He was an asylum seeker who said he was fleeing Boko Haram. His application was rejected and he went on hunger strike. After going without food for 90 days, he was visited by independent doctors who advised that he was too unwell to be deported. May's Home Office put him on an 'end of life' plan and arranged the deportation.

This was the type of behaviour we always saw at the Home Office. Cold, inhumane, bureaucratic, a Kafkaesque nightmare. It was like that before May arrived, got marginally worse while she was there, and remains in the same state now. But when she left, she brought that judgement and that manner to Downing Street. She is the Home Office prime minister. This is how she acts.

That's the type of mentality behind not offering European citizens in the UK assurances about their status. It's the type of mentality behind staring like a stone whenever she meets the European leaders. Many politicians have very distinct personalities and politics. Lots of right-wing critics of welfare are extremely warm and generous in real life, while socialists are often mean-spirited and disdainful. But in May's case, her personality and her politics seem identical.

Then there's the lies. Defence minister Tobias Ellwood told Question Time that "security concerns" have stopped May meeting residents. If so, the security services are clearly happy to sacrifice the life of the Queen, who arrived at a relief centre this morning and spoke with residents. Cold indifference, presentational catastrophe, and lies: that is what the Tories have offered so far.

Jeremy Corbyn took a different approach. He went to the tower. The images of him embracing residents seemed warm and natural and completely genuine. It was telling too that they welcomed him, in a way they most certainly would not have done for May. Even Labour mayor Sadiq Khan had a rough ride. But not Corbyn.

Again, it's not just symbolism. Corbyn's core message is of grotesque inequality under a rigged economic system designed for the rich. The fire seemed to reflect these ideas in the most horrific way imaginable, like the final scene of an Arthur Miller play: The rumours of cheap materials being used when more expensive varieties would have halted the spread of the flames, the fact it is in Kensington, where the gap between rich and poor is more obvious than perhaps anywhere in the country, the way the tower is right in front of the luxurious developments which increasingly fill the London landscape.

Emotions are high and politics, as we've seen over the last few weeks, can change suddenly. But this story has the capacity to break the back of the Tory party. It is currently trying to stitch together exactly the sort of shady back-stage deal it warned voters about if other parties tried it. Then it will enter Brexit talks it does not understand and cannot deliver on against an opponent which is much better prepared and organised. It has no reliable majority and is half-suffocated under the weight of its own electoral hubris. In that type of scenario, events - "events, dear boy, events" - like Grenfell can ruin you. There is every chance they will do so here.

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Friday, 2 June 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: Running to catch the purple train

"It has been a highly unusual few days in an election campaign, arguably unlike any other in history." - Anthony Wells
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Late last century, when this election campaign was in its youth and Theresa May was strong and stable, it became an hourly occurrence to say the Tories were driving their tanks all over Labour's lawn.

Heavy coverage of rather empty rhetoric to promote workers' rights and clamp down on corporate greed helped portray Theresa May as the prime minister who'd steal Labour's historic position as the party of working class voters. She was going to take Labour heartland seats everywhere outside the metropolitan cities.

Then came the manifestos.

While the Tories' Blue Labour posturing is now in tatters, geographically the tank manoeuvres continue - on both sides. Yesterday saw Theresa May campaigning in the old Yorkshire mining seat of Hemsworth, held by Labour since its creation in 1918. Current Labour majority? 12,000 - that's nearly 30%.

Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn gave a keynote speech on Brexit at an event in the Essex seat of South Basildon and East Thurrock. The successor to the iconic seat of Basildon, this is the sort of Middle England turf that Corbyn was thought to alienate. Current Tory majority? 7,700, or 17% - with Labour in third.

All of a sudden, everyone's tanks are all over the place. What's going on?

The end of Ukip is what. For all the focus of young voter turnout, the behaviour of 2015 Ukip voters is absolutely crucial in numerous target seats. 

Early on in the campaign polling showed around half planning to vote Tory - which, on top of Labour Brexiters 'lending their vote' to May, would have delivered the Conservatives a flood of seats.

More recent polls show around 40% of 2015 Ukip voters still switching to the Tories, but around 15% now planning to vote Labour.

Apply this evenly across the country, and the Tories still win a large majority.

However, much of Ukip's 2015 vote came in Tory fortresses in the South East and East Anglia. If their vote in those seats now collapses, it's likely they'll go overwhelmingly Tory. These are not seats where Labour has had a look-in since Blair's landslide era.

And if Ukip's vote goes heavily Tory there, that would suggest there must be other seats in other regions where it is splitting more evenly between reds and blues.

YouGov's new seat analysis model caused a huge stir when it launched this week with a forecast of a hung parliament. It assumes that people with similar demographics and political backgrounds, in similar seats, will behave similarly. It's not a bad assumption. It means that London seats with lots of young voters will behave similarly. And northern seats with lots of ex-Labour Ukip voters will do likewise.

And YouGov's model seems to have two specific trends that stand out. First, Labour is doing very well in London, holding onto their own marginals, taking stretch targets such as Enfield Southgate. 

Backed up by polling showing Labour streaking ahead in London, it's easy to see the basis of this trend, even if certain seat-specific results look odd - lots of ethnic minority voters, lots of young voters and students, lots of young professionals, and lots of angry Remainers make for lots of Labour votes. 

But the other trend is more surprising. In numerous key seats in Northern England and the Midlands, the model has the Tories underperforming.

So, in the North East, the Tories' 10% majority in Stockton South falls to three per cent. The party gets nowhere in trying to take Hartlepool and Darlington, and is five points down in Bishop Auckland.

In the North West, three key seats in Cumbria, where Labour got a pasting in last month's local elections, are all marked as tossups. Labour open up a 14 point lead in marginal Lancaster and Fleetwood that can't just be explained by the local student vote. Tory majorities in Warrington South and Crewe and Nantwich are slashed.

Keighley and Pudsey in Yorkshire - Tory majorities of six and nine per cent respectively - are both marked as tossups. Meanwhile solid Conservative majorities in Sherwood and Broxtowe in the East Midlands are cut heavily. Lincoln turns red.

Partly this is down to YouGov's polling giving the Tories leads of three or four percent - smaller than their 2015 lead, indicating a swing from them to Labour. But this doesn't explain how their majority in Stockton South, for example, falls so far. 

Received wisdom - also left in tatters by this election - holds that Labour's vote is piled up in its safe seats. But that would mean the Tories do proportionally better in the marginals. YouGov has them doing proportionally worse. It's the Tories who seem to be piling up votes in the wrong places.

Young voters matter, tactical voting by Greens and Lib Dems matter, but if YouGov are right, the Tories simply aren't winning enough ex-Ukip votes outside the South East. 

Now, maybe Ukip are weighting Ukip voters by their previous voting behaviour - many Ukip supporters in these old Labour heartlands used to vote, inevitably, for Labour. If they ditch Ukip now, they might be thought likeliest to return to the fold - especially with Labour unabashedly backing Brexit.

Alternatively, it could be that the huge sample YouGov uses is showing that Ukip voters in these areas are saying they'll vote Labour - including in Tory-held marginals. This would have the propensity to turn the election on its head.

But if that's the case, why would May be campaigning in unwinnable Hemsworth?

Maybe this is her version of Hillary Clinton trying to win Arizona while the Rust Belt quietly got away. Maybe it's hubristic. Maybe it's just for show - the battleground Potemkin. 

But this could equally be because both Labour and the Tories' canvas returns are showing huge volatility and churn among ex Ukip voters - making all kinds of seats theoretically winnable. The Ukip vote is definitely soft. Labour for their part may feel that if Basildon is out of reach, neighbouring ultra-marginal Thurrock, with its huge Ukip vote, most certainly is not.

And so the Tories will spend the final week of their election campaign on Brexit - trying to talk it up, making it out to be the great national project of the next five years rather than the enormous looming omnishambles it actually is. 

Always remember that millions of people in this country think of Brexit as the greatest political hope they've had in years. Many are looking for a new political home. After running the most shambolic election campaign anyone can remember, Theresa May hopes to stay in her home by offering her party as theirs.

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