Friday, 19 January 2018

Politics at Friday lunch: The real news happens backstage

"We are making a new tapestry together" - Emmanuel Macron
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Outside of Carillion, the news this week was colourful and inane. Ukip's leader is dating a model who sent racist texts, unless he has stopped dating her, which he may or may not have done, in which case he is simply maintaining a romance-free social relationship with a model who sent racist texts. Boris Johnson has not overseen enough pointless, expensive, humiliating vanity projects and therefore wants to build a bridge over the Channel. The Tories new 'vice-chair for youth' (it is a bad time for political job titles) Ben Bradley once wrote awful things about the poor. The wretched political blather is ceaseless.

While this goes on, talks are being held, very quietly, in Europe, which will define Britain's future for a generation. There have been few, if any, news reports about it in the British press. There have been few, if any, broadcast segments on it. It's as if Brexit is on pause. But it is not on pause. It is simply happening without us.

Additional negotiating directives on transitional arrangements are being adopted. Views are being taken from member states on guidelines for the next phase. Everything will be finalised by the Council summit meeting on March 22nd and 23rd. None of it is easy for the EU. Though they've managed to keep an impressive appearance of a united front, there are divisions between countries which would benefit from a decent trade deal with the UK, and those who wouldn't. In other cases, there are different political cultures pushing them towards different positions. Others have non-economic areas, like military cooperation, where they might be open to British advances. It's a complex process open to canny diplomacy.

Once these guidelines are in place, they are hard to shift. In the first phase, British politicians spoke to a domestic audience, promising them that they could have their cake and eat it, while tough negotiating frameworks were finalised in Europe. All of that earned barely a squeak of attention in the British press. But once negotiations started, their rigidity was a constant source of amazement.

Now the same process is taking place again. January to March is treated like a holiday from the Brexit issue. Many editors suspect their readers are bored rigid by it, after so many consecutive months of talk about country of origin checks and trade rules and the like. One local journalist I spoke to after a DExEU briefing on dispute resolution systems rightly asked: 'How on earth am I meant to turn this into something that is interesting for my readers?'

These are sensible editorial concerns. Any emotionally well-rounded reader avoids this stuff. It is dry in the extreme. But our instinctive lack of patience for it does not change the fact that the lives of millions of Brits will be affected by these decisions for decades to come, and that this is a key moment in that process, which is currently going underreported.

None of the signs from Europe are good. MEPs, who have a vote on the final deal, have cautioned the UK not to take the transition period for granted. Some are arguing for further requirements to be placed on London, including granting any European using free movement rights to come to the UK in that period the right to stay afterwards under the new residency scheme. There may also be a Brussels veto on rolling-over third party trade arrangements, although Liam Fox's ineptitude in this area is so severe and far-reaching that they can probably only be dealt with with Brussels' help anyway.

Meanwhile Norway launched a telling warning shot, telling the EU that any move to give Britain single market privileges without responsibilities - for instance by allowing services to be included in a deal outside the single market - would affect its own relationship with Europe. That served to highlight just how real and practical the dismissal of cherry picking is. It is not ideological. It is a matter of pragmatism.

On his visit to the UK, Macron reiterated that point. Everything is very nice and fluffy between him and Theresa May. They love pub lunches and selfies. But ultimately the message on financial services is clear, as it has been throughout: Nope. No way, mate.

The noises are not good. It is entirely unclear what kind of diplomatic operation the UK has trying to influence these crucial talks as they take place over the next two months, not least because the British press seems completely uninterested in uncovering it. But while we all talk about racist texts from nobodies and Johnson's bridge and dimwitted Tory blogs, the real mechanics of our political future is being decided, with barely a whisper of British involvement or press coverage.

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Friday, 12 January 2018

Politics at Friday lunch: A purge of white middle-aged men? If only

"Some people may feel they have been hoofed or not promoted simply because they are a white male" - Philip Davies
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This week, the Daily Mail branded Theresa May's reshuffle a 'massacre of middle-aged men'.

"Eight women joined the ranks compared with six men," the front page story read. "Some have been in parliament for only two years and five of them come from minority backgrounds. Ten of the 11 ministers axed during the reshuffle were white men."

Before you have too many sleepless nights over the fate of this persecuted group, it's worth remembering that the overall number of men in government has only dropped from 89 to 82. So rest easy, those pesky ethnic minority women won't be taking over any time soon.

As for those who have lost their jobs, they're likely to bounce back. White middle-aged men don't seem to have much trouble doing that. Take Nick Timothy, a man who is best known for helping the prime minister lose her majority in what most considered an unlosable election. Such was the anger surrounding his role in the disastrous campaign that May was later forced to remove him as her adviser.  But that was not the last we would see of him.  Now, instead of speaking for the prime minister from inside No.10, he does so from the pages of the Telegraph. The only thing that changed was his beard.

Then there's Boris Johnson, a man who has blundered his way to the top. For most people, being sacked twice would be enough to end your career. But not for Johnson, whose star just keeps rising. Even his handling of the Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe case, where his comments risked increasing a British citizen's prison sentence in Iran, didn't hinder his career.

And of course there's Toby Young. The columnist eventually stood down from his new role on the board of Office for Students (OfS) but only after days of revelations about comments he'd made about women's breasts, working class students and gay people. Throughout this period he was defended by senior government members like Michael Gove and Jo Johnson. The latter told MPs the government wanted to "encourage Mr Young to develop the best sides of his personality", as if he was a youthful trainee applying for an apprenticeship rather than experienced and influential middle-aged man.

For white men like this, failure, dishonesty and sexism is not enough to stall their careers. The controversy it provokes may cause them to stumble slightly but they are soon back up and running. Meanwhile, people who could do a much better job but don't have the same connections and protection offered by their status aren't even allowed a look in.

These men can afford to make mistakes, they can get away with upsetting people. In some cases, are seemingly rewarded for doing so. This was no purge. Perhaps it would be better if it was.

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Friday, 5 January 2018

Politics at Friday lunch: Another year, another culture war

"Given that defending free speech will be one of the OfS's priorities, there's a certain irony in people saying I'm 'unfit' to serve on its board because of politically incorrect things I've said in the past" - Toby Young
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It was a quiet start to the Westminster year, with just some catastrophic NHS failure to see us through. Because the NHS crisis is now pretty much permanent - and set, of course, to get considerably worse - that left a news vacuum, to be filled by two distant but related stories. One was the insane psychodrama described in Michael Wolff's book on Donald Trump, while the second, a few steps down the political pecking order, was Toby Young's instalment on the board of new university regulator the Office for Students (OfS).

The connection, of course, is the culture war, that weird new political format in which economics and politics are conducted through symbolic tribalism. Trump is the great raging gorilla embodying the new way of doing things. Toby Young has rather more of a bit-part status in the culture, but that alone was enough to secure him the job at the OfS. As Steve Peers wrote on this website, there is really no other credible reason for why he would have been offered it.

Young is one of the leading figures in the right-wing backlash against safe spaces in universities, which is a prominent battlefield in the culture war. Not long before the announcement, Johnson announced that the OfS would be able to fine or even suspend institutions which no-platformed speakers.

The problem is not entirely concocted. Many student unions do no-platform perfectly reasonable speakers, usually due to internecine left-wing battles over identity. It's also part of a broader problem, in that politically-minded young people often seem instinctively uninterested in JS Mill-type arguments for free speech, and consider censorship questions as more about protecting certain groups from emotional pain than protecting individuals from those who would stop them participating in debate.

But the opponents of safe space culture are at least as dreadful as its advocates and usually considerably more so. In recent years, right-wing pundits and newspapers have turned the issue into a crusade. They're typically motivated by a hatred of left-wing identity politics and a general envy of the young.

Government should have absolutely no role in this debate. Johnson's decision to award a regulator power over who student unions are and are not allowed to invite is diabolically stupid. Having the state force a student union to invite someone is as much an infringement on free speech as allowing it to do the opposite. It is also probably functionally impossible.

With Prevent on the one hand forcing universities to not invite certain speakers, and OfS on the other forcing them to do so, there is now a genuine threat to the intellectual independence of universities. And it does not come from students. It comes from government.

Johnson then proceeded to parachute Young into this horrible muddle. Even putting aside the silliness of the system he was establishing, it was a poor choice. There are a great many intelligent, thoughtful critics of the safe space culture. Young is not one of them. As his old tweets show, his judgement is very poor. He is one of those doesn't-really-mean-it, pissed-at-the-debating-club, underinformed-and-overconfident controversialist bores.

But then he wasn't installed to bring intellectual weight to the regulator on free speech issues. He was installed, as all figures are installed in the culture war, to symbolise something. In this case, he symbolised the fact that the chuntering haters of 'snowflakes' were now being given statutory power to kick the hell out of some right-on students. He is a baldy totem.

It is dispiriting to have to spend so much time debating something which has no inherent intellectual or policy value, but that is the name of the game nowadays. The fact we have started 2018 with this tedious debate suggests it will be just as empty and frustrating as the year which preceded it.

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