Friday, 10 March 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: Budget hysteria reveals fantasy land of British journalism

"I believe we should apologise. I will apologise to every voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto in the 2015 election" - Guto Bebb
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This week Theresa May experienced her worst political scandal since she became prime minister.

The rage was almost Biblical. Every newspaper splashed on it. The Sun started one of its campaigns. The Telegraph branded it "one of the worst Budget calamities of modern times". Chancellor Philip Hammond joined the special political club of people who are followed everywhere by journalists shouting: "Are you going to resign?"

What had he done?  Had he been caught at home with the bodies of murdered taxpayers? Had he burned a poppy? Was he found dressed up like Princess Diana doing an impromptu Sex Pistols gig in Camden? No. He had raised taxes on the self-employed by an average of £240 a year.

From April next year, there'll be a one percent increase in the main rate of Class 4 National Insurance Contributions for the self-employed, with another one per cent increase the year after. The flat-rate Class 2 NICS will be abolished and the tax-free dividend allowance reduced from £5,000 to £2,000. That's the lot.

May looked startled by the strength of the backlash. Plainly she was aware of the policy and had framed it as part of her 'fairness' agenda. She obviously thought that the absence of any functioning opposition in parliament gave her the breathing room to do a quick raid on people who would otherwise be thought of as core Tory supporters. She was wrong. By the time she was responding to the criticism in Brussels on Thursday she'd decided to delay the legislation until the autumn, with every chance that it would be quietly killed off before then.

In the upside-down world of the British press, this was the greatest scandal to rock Downing Street since the prime minister first stepped foot in it. But a few other things happened this week.

The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU, which represents US business interests in Europe, said May's decision to leave the single market could cost the UK 1.4 million jobs and £488 billion of direct investment from US companies in Britain.

The drumbeat of war for a second Scottish independence referendum, largely the result of May's refusal to consider Scottish pleas to stay in the single market, grew deafening. One government minister branding it "inevitable" and said the only uncertainty was about the date. An STV poll put the result on a 50-50 knife edge, a far stronger position for the nationalists than the 32%-38% range they were getting a couple of years ahead of the 2014 campaign

In the Commons, international trade minister Greg Hands admitted the government was still desperately trying to recruit trade experts, despite the fact that Article 50 talks - the largest trade negotiation this country has ever undertaken - will start before the end of the month. Those it does have seem to be largely from the civil service. They will be going up against an army of specialist trade experts often considered the best in the world.

Under any sane assessment, these are far bigger scandals. The actions of the prime minister have created the greatest threat to the Union it has ever faced,. They are being cited as so dangerous they threatens millions of jobs and billions of investment. The organisation from Downing Street has been so abysmal that the government admits it does not have the negotiating capacity to adequately negotiate the arrangements which will define Britain's economic future.

But on the other hand, self-employed people will lose £240 a year.

Whether you support or oppose that national insurance change is neither here nor there. What's remarkable is how unhinged the coverage of British politics has become if this is considered the scandal and the other stories just footnotes.

What really matters is whether the press support Brexit and by and large they do. Its dangers are therefore ignored and the decisions made in its honour are praised, regardless of their effectiveness or their repercussions. This has created a black hole where scrutiny should be and a complete lack of proportion in coverage. Seeing the frenzy over a tax change which will bring in £2 billion to the Treasury against the backdrop of largely-ignored cataclysmic economic gamble shows how provincial and myopic British journalism has become.

We are living in an upside-down world where what is small is big and what is big is invisible. Soon enough - possibly even by next week - Article 50 will be triggered. And then the imaginary world will come crushing down, as it meets the brute force of reality.

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Friday, 3 March 2017

Politics at Friday lunch: The Brexit age of double-think

"All of the practical benefits which flow from our Union, and which are hallmarks of it, depend on that deep and essential community of interest which we all share." - Theresa May
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The simplest way to work out what is going on in British politics right now is to take what a politician says, reverse it, and then assume that that's what they'll actually do. Gone are the days of misleading political statements. We are in an age of speeches dedicated to the exact thing they plan to destroy.

Last week ended with a speech by Jeremy Corbyn in which he lashed out a Brexit strategy which would take away workers rights and industrial standards and leave us at the mercy of US corporations in a Tory free market paradise. It would be wrong to say that it was rousing stuff, but it was at least encouraging.

Flash forward to Monday night and Labour was whipping its peers against an Article 50 amendment demanding we stay in the single market. It's a particularly poignant amendment for him to have whipped them on, because the single market is the chief guarantor of the standards he was celebrating a few nights before. It protects high standards in food, animal welfare, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, consumer safety, worker rights and countless other areas. It's when you leave the single market that a more powerful trading partner – like the US or China – can demand you hammer down those standards to make life easier for their exporters.

It was also curious because when you call Corbyn's people to ask about single market membership they like to tell you that it does not exist. No-one knows what they mean when they say this. It is a mystery. But they say it all the time to various media outlets. Which sort of raises the question: if you don't believe it exists, why whip your peers into voting against it?

Labour showed marginally more spine on Wednesday night on an amendment to protect the rights of EU nationals in the UK, including their right to stay in the country no matter what. In a bid to stave off the rebellion, home secretary Amber Rudd sent out a letter to peers before the vote.

"We owe it to those many European citizens who have contributed so much to this country to resolve this issue as soon as possible and give them the security they need to continue to contribute to this country," she wrote. In which case you might wonder why she doesn't just go ahead and do that.

Nigel Lawson voted against the amendment because he didn't want to "stir up fear" in EU residents. After all, he said, there was "no question" of their expulsion. In which case: why not guarantee their rights? Lawson was arguing against guaranteeing a status by saying that the status would not be removed. It was logical madness.

The only person prepared to speak truly and honestly on that side of the debate was Norman Tebbit. "Somehow or the other we seem to be thinking of nothing but the rights of foreigners," he said. It was refreshing in its way. Here was this relic of another way of doing things, someone who still insisted on saying what he actually thought, no matter how venal and appalling it was. Many were appalled, but it had the virtue of honesty, which is not something Rudd or Lawson could lay claim to.

Corbyn, Rudd and Lawson are mere bit parts in the story of double-think, however. They were nowhere near the heights of the art demonstrated by Theresa May on Friday morning.

At the Scottish Conservatives' spring conference she gave one of the most eloquent, well-reasoned, comprehensive, clear-sighted and passionate defences of cooperation between nations we'd heard for some time. It was, of course, dedicated to the preservation of the British Union against a second Scottish independence referendum. But the manner in which her rhetoric negated her own policies on Brexit was uncanny. In fact, it was such a blow-by-blow intellectual rejection of her entire purpose in government that there were points where it honestly seemed it might be some sort of coded cry for help – a desperate message to the country at large, shouted above the heads of her Brexit captors. Maybe Theresa was still a Remainer, held hostage in Downing Street by shadowy eurosceptic forces, and this was her only way of getting the message out. It must be true. Any other explanation would mean her hypocrisy was almost biblical in scale.

"The SNP propose Scottish independence, which would wrench Scotland out of its biggest market. They think independence is the answer to every question in every circumstance, regardless of fact and reality. It simply does not add up and we should never stop saying so…. Time and again the benefits of the Union – of doing together, collectively, what would be impossible to do apart – are clear. There is no economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, or of loosening the ties which bind us together. The pooling and sharing of risks and resources on the basis of need across our United Kingdom is the essence of our unity as a people. All of the practical benefits which flow from our Union, and which are hallmarks of it, depend on that deep and essential community of interest which we all share. It has been shaped by geography and refined by history."

On and on it went. Line after line of very well written and well argued material which ran completely counter to everything she has done in government.

"Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them," Orwell wrote in his novel 1984. The Labour and Conservative leaderships had better hope that people have that power, or else they'll look like fools.

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